TPM THIS WEEK...

In the early stages of the 2016 presidential race, Trump memorably told the crowd at a rally in Sioux Center, Iowa, "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?" While Trump's claim was directed at his supporters, the audience for the remark was clearly the media — who reported on it while failing to fully grasp its meaning. To many commentators, this was the kind of mask-off moment that could cost you the election, an inversion of Mitt Romney privately telling his supporters that 47% of the country would vote for Obama "no matter what" because they are "dependent upon government" and "pay no income tax" — something Romney's campaign never recovered from. But to Trump's base, his comments weren't seen as a misstep or belittling; rather, it was Trump demonstrating his dominance over the media. It was funny. The media didn't get it. LOL.

The Trump of 2016 is not the Trump of 2024. We've experienced four years of a Trump presidency, complete with Muslim bans and attempts at subverting the 2020 election. Post-presidency, we've witnessed him become more unhinged from reality, his rhetoric growing increasingly dark, and his fascist undertones become fascist overtones. In just the last few weeks he's attacked hurricane recovery efforts, suggested he would cut off disaster relief to blue states, promised to imprison election officials and Democratic donors, and told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo that he is willing to use the military on the political left, the "enemy from within." All of this has been widely reported by the media. None of it seems to have made much of an impact on his base.

In fact, the gridlock in the polls despite Trump's latest autocratic aspirations has had the effect of making the Democratic base depressed, beyond just their traditional pre-election panic. Writing in Esquire, Charlie Pierce describes a flatness in the runup to the election that is like "watching reality getting the stuffing beaten out of it and having no real way of fighting back." 

Perhaps it is the case that nearly half the country is disillusioned with democracy. A Gallup poll from January shows that Americans' satisfaction with the way democracy is working is at a record low. But that doesn't necessarily mean they're ready to throw it out. 

Another explanation for Trump's steadfast support is that some of his supporters don't believe what he says. For them, it's still an act. His extreme rhetoric and autocratic tendencies a negotiating tactic. The resulting four-alarm-fire headlines more proof that the media just doesn't get it. Of course there's no way to fight back because there was nothing there to fight in the first place. 

But when does the act end and the reality begin?

This week, Trump declared himself the father of IVF in an attempt to reassure women in his own party that the extreme abortion bans his judicial appointments made possible would be "redone … with the vote of the people." Guess they'll just have to take him at his word. LOL.

Elsewhere at TPM, Kate Riga attempts to unravel the mystery of why the Supreme Court declined to hear a pressing abortion case. And Emine Yücel reports on the lawsuit filed by the abortion rights group Floridians Protection Freedom – a direct response to the cease-and-desist letters Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration sent out to TV stations earlier this month, suggesting they could face sanctions for airing ads about Amendment 4.

On the Podcast, Kate and Josh discuss the campaigns' media strategies in the waning days of the race and make the case for why — contra the potentially Elon Musk-inflected vibes — there are reasons to be bullish on Kamala Harris' chances.

By Josh Marshall

We all know this pattern. But what's at the root of it? I don't think we're imagining or exaggerating it. I'm not sure this pattern applies to Democrats individually, certainly not all of them. But it certainly applies collectively, the way doom and gloom ricochets around the Democratic interwebs and the press generally, leading to these collective freakouts. It's real. And the cause, I think, is right in front of us.

Papa fertilization really stepped in it Wednesday when trying to convince a group of women that his supposed ardent support for in-vitro fertilization is a genuine, long-held political position — and not a bandwagon he hopped on when it became a convenient middle ground for damage control on his abortion record this campaign cycle.

"When I saw the news, I was very surprised — and surprised that the liberals didn't say anything," David Cohen, professor at Drexel University's Thomas R. Kline law school, told TPM. 

FPF's lawsuit comes just two weeks after the DeSantis administration's Department of Health sent a letter to some TV stations in the state, suggesting they could face criminal charges for airing ads that encourage voters to support Amendment 4.

Kate and Josh discuss the campaigns' media strategies in the waning days of the race and make the case for why — contra the potentially Elon Musk-inflected vibes — there are reasons to be bullish on Kamala Harris' chances.

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